US Election 2024

I think that others, like Noah, have done a great job with various analyses of the election and it's consequences.

I have some thoughts based on people I have spoken to in the last month and the data I have examined. I am giving the numbers from CNN, but The Washington Post has similar data.

First, overall turnout was similar in 2020 and 2024. This means that new voters replaced those who sat out or died.

In 2024, the 65 and older demographic is clearly the Boomers, the 45-64 demographic is primarily GenX, the 30-44 demographic is mostly Millennials, and the 18-29 demographic is primarily GenZ.

We see that the Boomers moved away from Trump, GenX moved significantly towards Trump, the Millennials seem to have sat this one out, and GenZ is more supportive of Trump than the Millennials were. This movement of GenX towards Trump and sitting out of the Millennials is important as Boomers moving away from Trump in 2020.

We also see that Hispanic men increased a little but had a massive shift from Biden/Clinton to Trump. Everyone has noticed this and spoken about this, so I won't.

Third, in 2016 and 2020, Democrats made up 36-37% of voters, while in 2024 they made up only 31% of voters. In fact, Democrats did better than Republicans among Republicans than Republicans did among Democrats, and Democrats did better among Independents. This suggests that Democrats sat out this election.

Finally, living in the Bay Area, I am surrounded by immigrants: those who have H1-B or similar temporary status, those who have permanent status like Green Cards, and those who are naturalized US citizens. I was surprised by the number who expressed mild to moderate support for Trump. They often viewed Trump as better for the stock market and business (this might be due in part to Musk's support of Trump), and they viewed the Democratic Party as corrupt (this might be driven primarily by the local Democratic Party and not by Harris/the national Democratic Party). The Economist published an article that seems to support my anecdotal evidence The demographic detail of Donald Trump’s victory . I have wondered if Trump would have won the Bay Area if all of the immigrants could vote.

I think that this means that we are still in the midst of a realignment. And probably the biggest failure of the Harris campaign is that it didn't really understand how to communicate to many of it's Millennial (and GenX?) supporters. 

Apportionment

I have been very busy lately. But I have been relieved about US politics, I was so anxious going into November and continuing all the way to January 20 (With a spike on January 6, and I heard enough online to be anxious about January 6 after D).

This isn't an anxious post. I think that there might be things to be anxious about, in Georgia for example, but I am not anxious. I did want to share thoughts about Apportionment. Apparently, New York, California, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan all lost seats. Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, Florida and Texas (2) all gained. Some people were anxious about this.

Florida, Colorado, North Carolina Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan have all been considered swing states. Texas, Montana and West Virginia are considered Republican while New York, California, Oregon and Illinois have been considered Democratic. This would suggest a 2 seat shift from Democratic to Republican. However, Ohio has looked very Republican lately and Colorado has looked very Democratic. This would give a 1 seat shift from Democratic to Republican. Finally, if Texas actually becomes a swing state, then it is a 1 seat shift from Democratic to swing.

So no, this is not something to be anxious about.

The Future of Science in America

The Trump Administration has been consistently anti-science. The new proposed budget continues this behavior (Trump's 2021 budget drowns science agencies red ink again). The DOE Office of Science, which funds most of HEP, has a proposed cut of 17%.

I think it is the case that the next 4 years will be a nightmare for science in the US if Trump is re-elected. The Republicans have stopped pushing back against Trump in many areas, and if he wins again in November I doubt the science budget will be important place of resistance for either Republicans or Democrats (and I doubt there will be any resistance left in elected Republicans not named Mitt Romney). It has been this resistance the previous 3 years, and I expect again this year (at least from the Democrats) which have mitigated some of the damage that this administration has tried to do to American Science.

Here is some additional documentation for this, that I have seen just in the last 36 hours:
Trump's new budget cuts all favored few science programs
Climate change once again left out of Trumps federal budget

While HEP hasn't faced nearly the barriers and difficulties that many other areas have faced (like Climate Science), HEP still faces challenges from the leadership of the DOE. One that I didn't see reported elsewhere is that Fermilab faced severe restrictions on collaboration with some foreign nationals soon (June 2017) after the Perry took over which was reduced/eliminated within days of the announcement of Perry's resignation in October 2019. Talking to older people, there were similar restrictions for a short period of time after September 11, 2001.

While the challenges that Science in the US faces due to Trump is minor compared to the challenges immigrants and various other groups face, and the challenges that HEP faces is minor compared to some other sciences, it is still something to think about during this election year.

Partisan questions before the Supreme Court

Two big decisions came down today from the United States Supreme Court.

One is a ruling that while extreme gerrymandering is wrong, that the Court is not able to fix it. While both parties benefit from extreme gerrymandering, Republicans currently benefit the most. The partisan advantage here is for Republicans.

The other is a ruling that while a census question about citizenship may be fine, that the current arguments are inadequant effectively removing the citizenship question from the 2020 census.  This decision came after information was uncovered that the Republicans supporting this question were not seeking to uphold the Voting Rights Act as claimed but were instead seeking to change voting districts for Republican advantage.The partisan advantage here is for the Democrats.

It seems to me that the court, which has a Republican lean, is trying to balance partisan questions.

Science Budgets

A few years ago I wrote about how both Republicans and Democrats were generally pro-science funding, and that the problem with science funding is that it wasn’t a priority to either group and so would be left off at the negotiating table.

The Trump administration has been repeatedly and broadly anti-science and anti-education. The Republican Party has changed to match Trump on many of his positions, and while there has been push back, in the Republican Party, against Trump's broad anti-science and anti-education tilt, I am concerned that the Republican Party will become broadly anti-science and anti-education.

The Trump administration recent budget had cuts to Higher Education (10% cut) (trumps budget proposal would cancel public service loan forgiveness), the NSF (12% cut, 1 billion) (trump proposes cutting national science foundation budget by billion dollars) and NASA (3% cut, 550 million) (President Trump proposes 550 million cut to NASA).

I am suspicious that this is similar to his tax cuts which were design to hurt the upper middle class in blue states, and is based on transactional politics.

I can hope that the Republican Party in the senate continues to push back against this anti-science budget and the Democrats in the House continue to support Science.