I have some thoughts based on people I have spoken to in the last month and the data I have examined. I am giving the numbers from CNN, but The Washington Post has similar data.
First, overall turnout was similar in 2020 and 2024. This means that new voters replaced those who sat out or died.
In 2024, the 65 and older demographic is clearly the Boomers, the 45-64 demographic is primarily GenX, the 30-44 demographic is mostly Millennials, and the 18-29 demographic is primarily GenZ.
We see that the Boomers moved away from Trump, GenX moved significantly towards Trump, the Millennials seem to have sat this one out, and GenZ is more supportive of Trump than the Millennials were. This movement of GenX towards Trump and sitting out of the Millennials is important as Boomers moving away from Trump in 2020.
We also see that Hispanic men increased a little but had a massive shift from Biden/Clinton to Trump. Everyone has noticed this and spoken about this, so I won't.
Third, in 2016 and 2020, Democrats made up 36-37% of voters, while in 2024 they made up only 31% of voters. In fact, Democrats did better than Republicans among Republicans than Republicans did among Democrats, and Democrats did better among Independents. This suggests that Democrats sat out this election.
Finally, living in the Bay Area, I am surrounded by immigrants: those who have H1-B or similar temporary status, those who have permanent status like Green Cards, and those who are naturalized US citizens. I was surprised by the number who expressed mild to moderate support for Trump. They often viewed Trump as better for the stock market and business (this might be due in part to Musk's support of Trump), and they viewed the Democratic Party as corrupt (this might be driven primarily by the local Democratic Party and not by Harris/the national Democratic Party). The Economist published an article that seems to support my anecdotal evidence The demographic detail of Donald Trump’s victory . I have wondered if Trump would have won the Bay Area if all of the immigrants could vote.
I think that this means that we are still in the midst of a realignment. And probably the biggest failure of the Harris campaign is that it didn't really understand how to communicate to many of it's Millennial (and GenX?) supporters.
